Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
